Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Progreso win with a probability of 36.47%. A win for Central Español had a probability of 33.86% and a draw had a probability of 29.67%.
The most likely scoreline for a Progreso win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.01%) and 2-0 (6.46%). The likeliest Central Español win was 0-1 (10.61%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.87%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood.