Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Deportivo Maldonado win with a probability of 41.78%. A draw had a probability of 29.32% and a win for Cerro Largo had a probability of 28.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Deportivo Maldonado win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.01%) and 1-2 (8.01%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.18%) , while for a Cerro Largo win it was 1-0 (10.87%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2% likelihood.