Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro Largo win with a probability of 35.02%. A win for Central Español had a probability of 34.26% and a draw had a probability of 30.67%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerro Largo win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.38%) and 0-2 (6.22%). The likeliest Central Español win was 1-0 (12.15%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood.