Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 40.86%. A win for Montevideo City Torque had a probability of 31.06% and a draw had a probability of 28.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.43%) and 0-2 (7.29%). The likeliest Montevideo City Torque win was 1-0 (9.75%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.23%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood.