Copa Libertadores Gameweek 4
May 7, 2026 3.00am
Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro

Deportes Tolima vs Nacional - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Deportes Tolima

All competitions
Copa Libertadores
Last game
Apr 29, 2026 3.00am
Tolima 3 - 0 Coquimbo

Nacional

All competitions
Copa Libertadores
Last game
Apr 30, 2026 3.00am
Universitario 4 - 2 Nacional

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Deportes Tolima win with a probability of 45.98%. A win for Nacional has a probability of 28.02% and a draw has a probability of 26.01%.

The most likely scoreline for a Deportes Tolima win is 1-0 with a probability of 11.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (9.38%) and 2-0 (8.41%). The likeliest Nacional win is 0-1 (8.48%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (13.14%).

Result

Deportes Tolima 45.98%
Draw 26.01% (-0.01)
Nacional 28.02% (+0.02)

Both Teams to Score: 

50.06% (-0.58)

Goals

Over 1.5 72.58% (-0.08)
Under 1.5 27.42% (+0.09)
Over 2.5 46.53% (-0.15)
Under 2.5 53.47% (+0.15)
Over 3.5 24.15% (-0.06)
Under 3.5 75.85% (+0.05)
Over 4.5 13.13% (+0.02)
Under 4.5 86.87% (-0.01)

First Half Winner

Deportes Tolima 32.88% (+0.14)
Draw 44.91% (-0.31)
Nacional 22.21% (+0.18)

Team To Score First

Deportes Tolima 56.36% (+0.12)
No Goal 7.73% (-0.01)
Nacional 35.91% (-0.12)

Corners

Over 8 50.36% (-0.92)
Equal 8 12.26% (-0.03)
Under 8 37.37% (+0.93)
Over 9 38.59% (-0.80)
Equal 9 11.77% (-0.12)
Under 9 49.64% (+0.92)
Over 10.5 28.23% (-0.65)
Under 10.5 71.77% (+0.65)

Deportes Tolima Goals

Over 1.5 41.67% (-0.05)
Under 1.5 58.33% (+0.05)
Over 2.5 17.64% (-0.11)
Under 2.5 82.36% (+0.11)
Over 3.5 5.96% (-0.05)
Under 3.5 94.04% (+0.06)

Nacional Goals

Over 0.5 62.21% (+0.08)
Under 0.5 37.79% (-0.08)
Over 1.5 26.94% (-0.11)
Under 1.5 73.06% (+0.11)
Over 2.5 8.83% (+0.05)
Under 2.5 91.17% (-0.04)
Over 3.5 2.5% (+0.03)
Under 3.5 97.5% (-0.02)

Score analysis

Deportes Tolima 45.98%
Draw 26.01%
Nacional 28.01%
Deportes Tolima
1-0 @ 11.21% (+0.05)
2-1 @ 9.38% (+0.06)
2-0 @ 8.41%
3-0 @ 4.49% (-0.05)
3-1 @ 4.27% (+0.01)
3-2 @ 2.27% (+0.02)
Other @ 5.95% (-0.05)
Total : 45.98%
Draw
1-1 @ 13.14% (+0.08)
0-0 @ 7.73% (-0.01)
2-2 @ 4.48% (-0.05)
Other @ 0.01%
Total : 26.01%
Nacional
0-1 @ 8.48% (+0.06)
1-2 @ 6.87% (-0.10)
0-2 @ 4.49% (-0.01)
1-3 @ 2.27% (-0.03)
2-3 @ 1.76% (+0.07)
0-3 @ 1.65% (+0.02)
Other @ 2.49% (+0.03)
Total : 28.01%

Head to Head

Copa Libertadores Gameweek 2
Apr 14, 2026 11.00pm
3
1
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio Gran Parque Central
  • Maximiliano Silvera  46' yellowcard
  • Maxi Gómez 48' goal
  • Sebastián Coates   64' goal
  • Agustín Dos Santos 85' yellowcard
  • Nicolás López 87' goal
  • P. Núñez 90'+2' yellowcard
  • Luciano Gonzalez 90'+4' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Edwar López 62'
  • yellowcard Juan Torres 62'
  • yellowcard Neifer Sánchez 76'
  • yellowcard Shean Barbosa 76'
  • yellowcard Sebastián Guzmán 76'
  • yellowcard Sebastián Guzmán 77'
  • yellowcard Neifer Sánchez 77'
  • goal Brayan Rovira 80'