Copa Libertadores Gameweek 3
Apr 30, 2026 3.00am
Estadio Monumental

Universitario vs Nacional - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Universitario

All competitions
Copa Libertadores
Last game
Apr 15, 2026 3.00am
Universitario 0 - 2 Coquimbo

Nacional

All competitions
Copa Libertadores
Last game
Apr 14, 2026 11.00pm
Nacional 3 - 1 Tolima

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Universitario win with a probability of 51.83%. A draw has a probability of 25.48% and a win for Nacional has a probability of 22.66%.

The most likely scoreline for a Universitario win is 1-0 with a probability of 13.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (10.1%) and 2-1 (9.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (12.25%) , while for a Nacional win it is 0-1 (8.55%).

Result

Universitario 51.83% (-0.25)
Draw 25.48% (+0.20)
Nacional 22.66% (+0.06)

Both Teams to Score: 

44.05% (-1.61)

Goals

Over 1.5 68.99% (-1.50)
Under 1.5 31.01% (+1.50)
Over 2.5 42.86% (-1.68)
Under 2.5 57.14% (+1.68)
Over 3.5 21.35% (-1.49)
Under 3.5 78.65% (+1.50)
Over 4.5 11.98% (-0.96)
Under 4.5 88.02% (+0.96)

First Half Winner

Universitario 40.84% (+1.10)
Draw 41.72% (-0.42)
Nacional 17.43% (-0.70)

Team To Score First

Universitario 63.53% (+1.04)
No Goal 9.06% (+0.38)
Nacional 27.41% (-1.40)

Corners

Over 8 50.53% (+2.63)
Equal 8 11.98% (+0.24)
Under 8 37.49% (-2.86)
Over 9 38.99% (+2.18)
Equal 9 11.54% (+0.44)
Under 9 49.47% (-2.63)
Over 10.5 28.78% (+1.63)
Under 10.5 71.22% (-1.63)

Universitario Goals

Over 1.5 43.6% (-1.08)
Under 1.5 56.4% (+1.08)
Over 2.5 19.62% (-1.31)
Under 2.5 80.38% (+1.30)
Over 3.5 6.93% (-0.74)
Under 3.5 93.07% (+0.73)

Nacional Goals

Over 0.5 54.96% (-0.36)
Under 0.5 45.04% (+0.36)
Over 1.5 20.57% (-0.76)
Under 1.5 79.43% (+0.77)
Over 2.5 5.31% (-0.32)
Under 2.5 94.69% (+0.32)
Over 3.5 1.28% (-0.07)
Under 3.5 98.72% (+0.07)

Score analysis

Universitario 51.83%
Draw 25.49%
Nacional 22.66%
Universitario
1-0 @ 13.38% (+0.61)
2-0 @ 10.1% (+0.25)
2-1 @ 9.27% (+0.21)
3-0 @ 5.56% (-0.17)
3-1 @ 4.32% (-0.30)
3-2 @ 2.28% (-0.12)
Other @ 6.92% (-0.74)
Total : 51.83%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.25% (-0.01)
0-0 @ 9.06% (+0.38)
2-2 @ 3.64% (-0.18)
Other @ 0.01%
Total : 25.49%
Nacional
0-1 @ 8.55% (+0.52)
1-2 @ 5.57% (-0.11)
0-2 @ 3.77% (-0.05)
1-3 @ 1.43% (-0.06)
0-3 @ 1.1% (-0.14)
Other @ 1.27% (-0.07)
Total : 22.66%