Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Universitario win with a probability of 59.13%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Melgar had a probability of 17.32%.
The most likely scoreline for a Universitario win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.19%) and 2-1 (11.14%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.15%) , while for a Melgar win it was 0-1 (6.03%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood.