Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vasco da Gama win with a probability of 47.86%. A win for Melgar had a probability of 27.48% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Vasco da Gama win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.43%) and 2-0 (8.1%). The likeliest Melgar win was 0-1 (7.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.67%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vasco da Gama would win this match.

Result
Vasco da Gama	Draw	Melgar
47.86% ( -0)	24.66% ( 0)	27.48% ( 0)

Both teams to score 55.08%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.53% (

-0)

47.47% (

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.32%

69.68%

Vasco da Gama Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.11%

19.89% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.98% (

-0)

52.01% (

Melgar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.75% (

31.24%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.41%

67.59% (

Score Analysis

Vasco da Gama 47.85%

Melgar 27.48%

Draw 24.66%

Vasco da Gama	Draw	Melgar
1-0 @ 10.03% 2-1 @ 9.43% ( -0) 2-0 @ 8.1% 3-1 @ 5.08% 3-0 @ 4.36% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.95% 4-1 @ 2.05% 4-0 @ 1.76% 4-2 @ 1.19% Other @ 2.9% Total : 47.85%	1-1 @ 11.67% 0-0 @ 6.22% ( 0) 2-2 @ 5.48% 3-3 @ 1.15% Other @ 0.15% Total : 24.66%	0-1 @ 7.23% ( 0) 1-2 @ 6.79% 0-2 @ 4.21% 1-3 @ 2.63% 2-3 @ 2.13% 0-3 @ 1.63% Other @ 2.86% Total : 27.48%