Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vasco da Gama win with a probability of 45.12%. A draw had a probability of 27.6% and a win for Academia Puerto Cabello had a probability of 27.29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vasco da Gama win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.84%) and 1-2 (8.67%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.88%), while for an Academia Puerto Cabello win it was 1-0 (9.58%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood.