Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cruzeiro win with a probability of 48.44%. A draw had a probability of 25.9% and a win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 25.68%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cruzeiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.25%) and 2-0 (9.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.28%), while for a Vasco da Gama win it was 0-1 (8.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Cruzeiro in this match.