Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vasco da Gama win with a probability of 43.49%. A win for Sport Recife had a probability of 29.2% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Vasco da Gama win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.66%) and 2-0 (8.24%). The likeliest Sport Recife win was 0-1 (9.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.87%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vasco da Gama would win this match.

Result
Vasco da Gama	Draw	Sport Recife
43.49% ( 0.01)	27.3% ( 0)	29.2% ( -0.02)

Both teams to score 48.11% (

-0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.95% (

-0.02)

57.04% (

0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.07% (

-0.01)

77.93% (

0.01)

Vasco da Gama Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.98% (

-0)

26.02% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.95% (

-0)

61.05% (

-0)

Sport Recife Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.04% (

-0.02)

34.96% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.29% (

-0.02)

71.7% (

0.02)

Score Analysis

Vasco da Gama 43.48%

Sport Recife 29.2%

Draw 27.3%

Vasco da Gama	Draw	Sport Recife
1-0 @ 12.24% 2-1 @ 8.66% 2-0 @ 8.24% ( 0) 3-1 @ 3.89% 3-0 @ 3.7% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.04% ( -0) 4-1 @ 1.31% 4-0 @ 1.25% Other @ 2.15% Total : 43.48%	1-1 @ 12.87% 0-0 @ 9.1% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 4.55% ( -0) Other @ 0.78% Total : 27.3%	0-1 @ 9.56% 1-2 @ 6.76% ( -0) 0-2 @ 5.02% ( -0) 1-3 @ 2.37% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.76% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.6% ( -0) Other @ 2.13% Total : 29.2%