Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortaleza win with a probability of 38.41%. A win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 34.1% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortaleza win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.16%) and 0-2 (7%). The likeliest Vasco da Gama win was 1-0 (10.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.99%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood.