Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melgar win with a probability of 51.42%. A draw had a probability of 26.7% and a win for Lanus had a probability of 21.88%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melgar win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.59%) and 2-1 (8.97%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.33%), while for a Lanus win it was 0-1 (8.48%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood.