Copa Libertadores | Group Stage

May 15, 2025 at 3am UK

Estadio Monumental

Universitario
1 - 0
Barcelona

Valera (45+1', 45+1')
Corzo (36'), Corzo (36'), Valera (38'), Valera (38'), Carabali (46'), Carabali (46')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Rivero (38'), Rivero (38')

Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Group Stage clash between Universitario and Barcelona SC.

Form, Standings, Stats

Universitario

Last Game: Universitario 1-1 Independiente
Friday, May 9 at 3am in Copa Libertadores

Barcelona SC

Last Game: Barcelona 2-3 River Plate
Friday, May 9 at 1.30am in Copa Libertadores

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Universitario win with a probability of 60.72%. A draw had a probability of 22.8% and a win for Barcelona SC had a probability of 16.49%.

The most likely scoreline for a Universitario win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.94%) and 2-1 (9.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.76%), while for a Barcelona SC win it was 0-1 (6.02%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Universitario in this match.

Result
Universitario	Draw	Barcelona SC
60.72% ( 0.38)	22.79% ( -0.2)	16.49% ( -0.19)

Both teams to score 46.11% (

0.19)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.05% (

0.45)

51.95% (

-0.46)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.31% (

0.39)

73.69% (

-0.39)

Universitario Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.29% (

0.29)

16.71% (

-0.29)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

53.4% (

0.52)

46.6% (

-0.52)

Barcelona SC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

55.36% (

0.03)

44.64% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

19.35% (

0.02)

80.65% (

-0.03)

Score Analysis

Universitario 60.72%

Barcelona SC 16.49%

Draw 22.78%

Universitario	Draw	Barcelona SC
1-0 @ 13.34% ( -0.11) 2-0 @ 11.94% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 9.63% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 7.12% ( 0.08) 3-1 @ 5.74% ( 0.07) 4-0 @ 3.19% ( 0.07) 4-1 @ 2.57% ( 0.06) 3-2 @ 2.32% ( 0.03) 5-0 @ 1.14% ( 0.03) 4-2 @ 1.04% ( 0.02) 5-1 @ 0.92% ( 0.03) Other @ 1.78% Total : 60.72%	1-1 @ 10.76% ( -0.08) 0-0 @ 7.46% ( -0.14) 2-2 @ 3.88% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.68% Total : 22.78%	0-1 @ 6.02% ( -0.1) 1-2 @ 4.34% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 2.43% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 1.17% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.04% ( 0) Other @ 1.5% Total : 16.49%