Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 59.03%. A draw had a probability of 24.96% and a win for Danubio had a probability of 16%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.32%) and 2-1 (10.17%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.56%) , while for a Danubio win it was 0-1 (6.88%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood.