Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Danubio win with a probability of 37.82%. A win for Montevideo City Torque had a probability of 32.07% and a draw had a probability of 30.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Danubio win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.37%) and 2-0 (6.59%). The likeliest Montevideo City Torque win was 0-1 (10.49%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.66%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.7% likelihood.