Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Danubio win with a probability of 47.7%. A draw had a probability of 29.18% and a win for Progreso had a probability of 23.12%.
The most likely scoreline for a Danubio win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.67%) and 2-1 (8.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.38%) , while for a Progreso win it was 0-1 (9.51%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood.