Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Danubio win with a probability of 43.88%. A draw had a probability of 30.94% and a win for Cerro had a probability of 25.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a Danubio win was 0-1 with a probability of 16.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.23%) and 1-2 (7.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (14.66%) , while for a Cerro win it was 1-0 (11.17%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 16.5% likelihood.