Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 52.43%. A draw had a probability of 28.42% and a win for Danubio had a probability of 19.15%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.79%) and 2-1 (9.25%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.81%) , while for a Danubio win it was 0-1 (8.63%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood.