Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 38.52%. A draw had a probability of 30.91% and a win for Colo-Colo had a probability of 30.57%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.39%) and 2-0 (6.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.1%) , while for a Colo-Colo win it was 0-1 (10.52%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood.