Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 41.36%. A draw had a probability of 29.44% and a win for River Plate had a probability of 29.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.25%) and 2-0 (7.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.1%) , while for a River Plate win it was 0-1 (10.42%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood.