World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage

Nov 16, 2024 at 12am UK

Estadio Centenario

Uruguay
3 - 2
Colombia

Sanchez (57' og., 57' og.), Aguirre (60', 60'), Ugarte (90+11', 90+11')
Bentancur (26'), Bentancur (26'), Aguirre (37'), Aguirre (37'), Valverde (69'), Valverde (69'), Nandez (80'), Nandez (80')

FT(HT: 0-2)

Quintero (31', 31'), Gomez (90+6', 90+6')
Quintero (25'), Quintero (25'), Duran (58'), Duran (58')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's World Cup Qualifying clash between Uruguay and Colombia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Uruguay

All competitions

World Cup Qualifying

Last Game: Uruguay 0-0 Ecuador
Wednesday, October 16 at 12.30am in World Cup Qualifying - South America

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	11	13	22
2	Colombia	10	7	19
3	Ecuador	11	6	19
4	Brazil	11	6	17
5	Uruguay	10	7	16
6	Paraguay	11	1	16
7	Venezuela	11	-2	12
8	Bolivia	11	-14	12
9	Peru	10	-11	6
10	Chile	10	-13	5

Colombia

All competitions

World Cup Qualifying

Last Game: Colombia 4-0 Chile
Tuesday, October 15 at 9.30pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	11	13	22
2	Colombia	10	7	19
3	Ecuador	11	6	19
4	Brazil	11	6	17
5	Uruguay	10	7	16
6	Paraguay	11	1	16
7	Venezuela	11	-2	12
8	Bolivia	11	-14	12
9	Peru	10	-11	6
10	Chile	10	-13	5

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Uruguay win with a probability of 41.72%. A draw had a probability of 29.7% and a win for Colombia had a probability of 28.58%.

The most likely scoreline for a Uruguay win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.51%) and 2-1 (7.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.3%), while for a Colombia win it was 0-1 (11.33%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Uruguay would win this match.

Result
Uruguay	Draw	Colombia
41.72% ( -0.62)	29.69% ( -0.06)	28.58% ( 0.68)

Both teams to score 41.49% (

0.47)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

34.81% (

0.41)

65.19% (

-0.41)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

15.98% (

0.29)

84.02% (

-0.29)

Uruguay Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.09% (

-0.15)

30.91% (

0.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.79% (

-0.17)

67.2% (

0.17)

Colombia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

60.05% (

0.81)

39.94% (

-0.81)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

23.4% (

0.73)

76.6% (

-0.74)

Score Analysis

Uruguay 41.72%

Colombia 28.58%

Draw 29.68%

Uruguay	Draw	Colombia
1-0 @ 14.49% ( -0.28) 2-0 @ 8.51% ( -0.2) 2-1 @ 7.81% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 3.33% ( -0.09) 3-1 @ 3.06% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 1.4% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 0.98% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.14% Total : 41.72%	1-1 @ 13.3% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 12.34% ( -0.19) 2-2 @ 3.58% ( 0.07) Other @ 0.46% Total : 29.68%	0-1 @ 11.33% ( 0.08) 1-2 @ 6.1% ( 0.15) 0-2 @ 5.2% ( 0.15) 1-3 @ 1.87% ( 0.09) 0-3 @ 1.59% ( 0.08) 2-3 @ 1.1% ( 0.05) Other @ 1.4% Total : 28.58%