Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Uruguay win with a probability of 68.03%. A draw had a probability of 18.7% and a win for Guatemala had a probability of 13.24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Uruguay win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.4%) and 2-1 (9.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.87%), while for a Guatemala win it was 0-1 (4.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.