Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	6	6	15
2	Uruguay	6	8	13
3	Colombia	6	3	12
4	Ecuador	6	2	11
5	Venezuela	6	3	9
6	Brazil	6	1	7
7	Paraguay	6	-2	5
8	Chile	6	-4	5
9	Bolivia	6	-10	3
10	Peru	6	-7	2

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a USA win with a probability of 40.65%. A win for Uruguay had a probability of 32.76% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a USA win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.58%) and 2-0 (7.21%). The likeliest Uruguay win was 0-1 (9.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.64%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Uruguay would win this match.

Result
USA	Draw	Uruguay
40.65% ( -0.05)	26.59% ( -0.16)	32.76% ( 0.21)

Both teams to score 51.71% (

0.57)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.87% (

0.7)

53.13% (

-0.7)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.29% (

0.59)

74.71% (

-0.59)

USA Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.28% (

0.29)

25.72% (

-0.29)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.36% (

0.39)

60.64% (

-0.39)

Uruguay Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.61% (

0.49)

30.39% (

-0.5)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.41% (

0.58)

66.59% (

-0.59)

Score Analysis

USA 40.65%

Uruguay 32.76%

Draw 26.59%

USA	Draw	Uruguay
1-0 @ 10.61% ( -0.2) 2-1 @ 8.58% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 7.21% ( -0.08) 3-1 @ 3.89% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 3.26% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.31% ( 0.06) 4-1 @ 1.32% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 1.11% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.35% Total : 40.65%	1-1 @ 12.64% ( -0.07) 0-0 @ 7.82% ( -0.22) 2-2 @ 5.11% ( 0.08) 3-3 @ 0.92% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.59%	0-1 @ 9.31% ( -0.13) 1-2 @ 7.53% ( 0.06) 0-2 @ 5.54% 1-3 @ 2.99% ( 0.07) 0-3 @ 2.2% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 2.03% ( 0.06) Other @ 3.17% Total : 32.76%