Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a USA win with a probability of 52.8%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Panama had a probability of 22.64%.
The most likely scoreline for a USA win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.74%) and 1-2 (9.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.67%), while for a Panama win it was 1-0 (7.1%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood.