Champions Bayer Leverkusen could effectively lose their Bundesliga crown to Bayern Munich if they are beaten by hosts St Pauli on Sunday at Millerntor-Stadion.
St Pauli defeated Holstein Kiel 2-1 on April 12 and are fourth last in 15th place with 29 points, whereas Leverkusen are second with 63 points and trail leaders Bayern by six points with four games remaining following their 0-0 draw with Union Berlin last Saturday.
Match preview
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The hosts were excellent from a defensive perspective against Holstein Kiel, limiting them to just three attempts inside the box, though the victors did rely on Max Geschwill's 92nd-minute own goal to claim all three points.
Kiezkicker have scored seven goals in their last five outings, which was as many as they had managed in their previous 11 games.
A draw would ensure that St Pauli could not be automatically relegated, and a victory could ensure that they finish above the league's 16th-placed relegation playoff spot if Heidenheim also lost against Bayern Munich on Saturday.
Head coach Alexander Blessin has overseen two victories and two draws in his side's past five league matches, whereas they had collected just 10 points in their prior 12.
St Pauli have only won once in their last five home fixtures - losing two – while scoring three goals and conceding on five occasions.
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As for Bayer Leverkusen, they created remarkably few opportunities in the final third against Union Berlin, registering just two shots on target from inside the penalty area and generating less than one xG despite accumulating 74% possession.
Die Schwarzroten's attack has faltered in recent weeks, with the champions failing to find the back of the net in four of their last eight games.
Manager Xabi Alonso will know that since the league leaders boast a goal difference figure that is 25 better than his side, the Bavarians will likely have to drop points in at least three matches if his team are to retain the title.
Leverkusen emerged as 2-1 victors against St Pauli in the reverse fixture on December 7, though they were lacklustre in attack on the day, producing just three shots after scoring their second in the 21st minute.
The visitors' record in the Bundesliga has been excellent for some time, with the club winning 14 of their last 19 in the league, losing just once.
Alonso's side are also undefeated in their past 31 away matches in the top flight, achieving victory 23 times in that period.
Team News
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St Pauli will have to face Leverkusen without several key players, including defender Karol Mets, as well goalkeeper Sascha Burchert.
David Nemeth, Hauke Wahl and Siebe Van der Heyden may be chosen to shield shot-stopper Nikola Vasilj.
Midfielders Eric Smith and Connor Metcalfe may be positioned in the middle of the pitch given James Sands, Scott Banks, Jackson Irvine and Robert Wagner will play no part on the weekend.
Blessin could start Danel Sinani, Oladapo Afolayan and Morgan Guilavogui in the forward line considering Simon Zoller, Elias Saad, Noah Weisshaupt and Johannes Eggestein have been ruled out.
Meanwhile, Leverkusen attacker Florian Wirtz is likely to return to the starting lineup for the first time since March 5, but Martin Terrier and Nathan Tella will not be in the squad.
Defenders Jeanuel Belocian and Mario Hermoso are both injured, so expect Edmond Tapsoba, Jonathan Tah and Piero Hincapie to feature in a back three.
Granit Xhaka has been a stalwart in midfield for the champions, and he could be partnered by Aleix Garcia on Sunday.
St Pauli possible starting lineup:
Vasilj; Nemeth, Wahl, Van der Heyden; Saliakas, Smith, Metcalfe, Treu; Sinani; Afolayan, Guilavogui
Bayer Leverkusen possible starting lineup:
Hradecky; Tapsoba, Tah, Hincapie; Frimpong, Xhaka, Garcia, Grimaldo; Adli, Wirtz; Schick
We say: St Pauli 1-3 Bayer Leverkusen
The impact of Wirtz's likely return to the starting XI should not be underestimated, and he may help to significantly bolster the visitors' attack.
Though St Pauli have found positive results easier to come by of late, their home record is not particularly strong, and they could suffer a defeat at the hands of the champions.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Lewis Nolan
