Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 41.14%. A win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 30.96% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.33%) and 0-2 (7.82%). The likeliest Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 (10.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.08%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
| 30.96% | 27.89% | 41.14% |
| Both teams to score 47.2% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.43% | 58.57% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.86% | 79.14% |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.54% | 34.45% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.83% | 71.17% |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.01% | 27.98% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.37% | 63.62% |
| Score Analysis |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
| 1-0 @ 10.27% 2-1 @ 6.97% 2-0 @ 5.47% 3-1 @ 2.48% 3-0 @ 1.94% 3-2 @ 1.58% Other @ 2.25% Total : 30.96% | 1-1 @ 13.08% 0-0 @ 9.64% 2-2 @ 4.44% Other @ 0.73% Total : 27.89% | 0-1 @ 12.27% 1-2 @ 8.33% 0-2 @ 7.82% 1-3 @ 3.54% 0-3 @ 3.32% 2-3 @ 1.88% 1-4 @ 1.13% 0-4 @ 1.06% Other @ 1.79% Total : 41.13% |