Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 55.45%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for Tondela had a probability of 19.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.52%) and 1-2 (9.19%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.77%), while for a Tondela win it was 1-0 (7.54%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vitoria de Guimaraes would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Tondela | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
| 19.1% | 25.44% | 55.45% |
| Both teams to score 43.41% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.93% | 58.07% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.26% | 78.74% |
| Tondela Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 54.95% | 45.05% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.02% | 80.97% |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79% | 20.99% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.23% | 53.77% |
| Score Analysis |
| Tondela | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
| 1-0 @ 7.54% 2-1 @ 4.69% 2-0 @ 3.01% 3-1 @ 1.25% 3-2 @ 0.97% Other @ 1.64% Total : 19.1% | 1-1 @ 11.77% 0-0 @ 9.46% 2-2 @ 3.66% Other @ 0.55% Total : 25.44% | 0-1 @ 14.76% 0-2 @ 11.52% 1-2 @ 9.19% 0-3 @ 6% 1-3 @ 4.78% 0-4 @ 2.34% 2-3 @ 1.91% 1-4 @ 1.87% Other @ 3.1% Total : 55.45% |