Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portimonense win with a probability of 40.12%. A win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 31.13% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portimonense win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8%) and 2-0 (7.81%). The likeliest Gil Vicente win was 0-1 (11.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.28%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Portimonense would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Portimonense | Draw | Gil Vicente |
| 40.12% | 28.75% | 31.13% |
| Both teams to score 44.9% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.52% | 61.48% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.65% | 81.35% |
| Portimonense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.02% | 29.98% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.91% | 66.09% |
| Gil Vicente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.12% | 35.88% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.34% | 72.66% |
| Score Analysis |
| Portimonense | Draw | Gil Vicente |
| 1-0 @ 12.95% 2-1 @ 8% 2-0 @ 7.81% 3-1 @ 3.21% 3-0 @ 3.14% 3-2 @ 1.65% 4-1 @ 0.97% 4-0 @ 0.94% Other @ 1.45% Total : 40.11% | 1-1 @ 13.28% 0-0 @ 10.75% 2-2 @ 4.1% Other @ 0.61% Total : 28.74% | 0-1 @ 11.02% 1-2 @ 6.81% 0-2 @ 5.65% 1-3 @ 2.33% 0-3 @ 1.93% 2-3 @ 1.4% Other @ 2% Total : 31.13% |