Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tondela win with a probability of 36.33%. A win for Maritimo had a probability of 35.32% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tondela win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.7%) and 0-2 (6.75%). The likeliest Maritimo win was 1-0 (11.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.25%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Maritimo | Draw | Tondela |
| 35.32% | 28.34% | 36.33% |
| Both teams to score 46.77% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.48% | 59.51% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.13% | 79.87% |
| Maritimo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.06% | 31.94% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.61% | 68.39% |
| Tondela Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.71% | 31.29% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.35% | 67.64% |
| Score Analysis |
| Maritimo | Draw | Tondela |
| 1-0 @ 11.4% 2-1 @ 7.56% 2-0 @ 6.51% 3-1 @ 2.88% 3-0 @ 2.48% 3-2 @ 1.67% Other @ 2.82% Total : 35.32% | 1-1 @ 13.25% 0-0 @ 9.99% 2-2 @ 4.39% Other @ 0.71% Total : 28.34% | 0-1 @ 11.61% 1-2 @ 7.7% 0-2 @ 6.75% 1-3 @ 2.98% 0-3 @ 2.61% 2-3 @ 1.7% Other @ 2.98% Total : 36.33% |