Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 36.68%. A win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 33.52% and a draw had a probability of 29.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.34%) and 0-2 (7.14%). The likeliest Gil Vicente win was 1-0 (12.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.47%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Gil Vicente | Draw | Nacional |
| 33.52% | 29.8% | 36.68% |
| Both teams to score 42.6% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 35.48% | 64.52% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 16.45% | 83.55% |
| Gil Vicente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.21% | 35.79% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.43% | 72.56% |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.35% | 33.65% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.7% | 70.3% |
| Score Analysis |
| Gil Vicente | Draw | Nacional |
| 1-0 @ 12.37% 2-1 @ 6.92% 2-0 @ 6.36% 3-1 @ 2.37% 3-0 @ 2.18% 3-2 @ 1.29% Other @ 2.03% Total : 33.52% | 1-1 @ 13.47% 0-0 @ 12.04% 2-2 @ 3.77% Other @ 0.5% Total : 29.78% | 0-1 @ 13.11% 1-2 @ 7.34% 0-2 @ 7.14% 1-3 @ 2.66% 0-3 @ 2.59% 2-3 @ 1.37% Other @ 2.45% Total : 36.67% |