We said: Everton 1-0 Brighton & Hove Albion
Goodison Park has not been kind to Brighton in recent memory, although Everton's two week-long break may work against them if rustiness comes into play.
The expected return of Calvert-Lewin will aid Everton's prospects of breaking down a stubborn Seagulls backline, though, and we have confidence in the Toffees' ability to nick the odd goal and start 2022 as they mean to go on.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brighton & Hove Albion win with a probability of 37.57%. A win for Everton had a probability of 34.25% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brighton & Hove Albion win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.89%) and 0-2 (7%). The likeliest Everton win was 1-0 (11.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.2%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Brighton & Hove Albion would win this match.
