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Premier League | Gameweek 12
Nov 20, 2021 at 3pm UK
Villa Park
Brighton logo

Aston Villa
2 - 0
Brighton

Watkins (84'), Mings (89')
Nakamba (59'), Konsa (90+3'), Cash (90+4')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Cucurella (49'), Webster (67'), Mac Allister (90+3')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Premier League clash between Aston Villa and Brighton & Hove Albion, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
The Steven Gerrard era will begin at Aston Villa on Saturday as the out-of-form hosts welcome Brighton & Hove Albion to Villa Park. Gerrard took over from Dean Smith at the helm during the international break, with Villa having lost their last five Premier League games.

Match preview

Many Aston Villa fans will have been disappointed to see Dean Smith sacked from his role earlier this month, with the lifelong fan of the club having enjoyed some memorable high points during his time in charge. However, there will also be plenty of excitement surrounding the arrival of Gerrard, whose managerial CV already boasts a league title with Rangers, ending Celtic's nine-year domination in Scotland. The Liverpool legend's return to the Premier League has naturally led to some speculating if and when he may move on to Anfield, but Gerrard has stressed that the Villa job is not simply a stepping stone for him, and he undoubtedly still has plenty to prove in his relatively short managerial career so far. Victory on Saturday would be a perfect start, with only two of Aston Villa's previous 12 Premier League managers - John Gregory and Gerard Houllier - winning their first top-flight outing in charge of the club. To join that short list, Gerrard must end Villa's worst run of Premier League form since 2015-16, with Smith having lost his final five games in charge. The Midlands outfit have not picked up a single point since beating Manchester United at Old Trafford on September 25, conceding 13 goals in that time and dropping down to 16th place - just two points clear of the relegation zone. Indeed, only the bottom two of Newcastle United and Norwich City have conceded more goals than Villa this season, while Norwich are the only team to have lost more than Villa's seven defeats from 11 games so far. The gap to Saturday's opponents is seven points, although Brighton's relatively lofty league position of seventh belies a noticeable dip in form of late. The Seagulls' last Premier League win was actually longer ago than Villa's; they have failed to win any of their six top-flight outings since overcoming Leicester City on September 19. However, Graham Potter's side have still managed to pick up points in that time, losing just one of those six games - against Manchester City - and holding the likes of Liverpool and Arsenal to draws along the way. A 1-1 stalemate with Newcastle before the international break was a more disappointing result, although they will still be more than content with their seventh-placed standing after 11 games, sitting level on points with Manchester United and just five points off the top four. Chelsea and Liverpool are the only teams to have been beaten on fewer occasions than Brighton this term, while those two giants and Manchester City are also the only teams to have conceded fewer goals than the Seagulls so far. Brighton are also one of three teams - alongside Chelsea and West Ham United - yet to be beaten away from home in the Premier League this season, so Saturday's trip will not faze them, particularly having secured their first ever away win over Villa on their last visit. Goals from Danny Welbeck and Solly March sealed that 2-1 triumph almost exactly a year ago to the day, leaving Villa winless in the last three meetings between the two sides, and having not led at any stage in those games either. However, last year's corresponding fixture was also the only time Brighton have tasted victory over Aston Villa in their last 12 attempts, and they will be need to be particularly wary this time around with the hosts hopeful of a new manager bounce.
Aston Villa Premier League form:
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L
Brighton & Hove Albion Premier League form:
  • D
  • D
  • D
  • L
  • D
  • D
Brighton & Hove Albion form (all competitions):
  • D
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • D
  • D

Team News

Gerrard will be hopeful of having Danny Ings available after the striker missed the last two matches before the international break due to coronavirus. The new manager generally favoured a 4-3-3 formation during his time at Ibrox, and may line up in that system again for his first game at Villa Park, which could force either Ings or Ollie Watkins into a slightly wider position than usual. Ezri Konsa is available again for the hosts after suspension, while Leon Bailey's injury scare during the international break has been downplayed, but major doubts remain over the fitness of Douglas Luiz and Marvelous Nakamba. Morgan Sanson is an alternative option in the middle of the park, but he has been limited to just 42 minutes of EFL Cup action this season and has not started a Premier League game since April. John McGinn could therefore be forced into a holding role, while the returning Konsa has also featured in that position before and could provide another option. Bertrand Traore is nearing a return to action but this game is expected to come too soon for him, while Trezeguet is also still sidelined. Brighton have notable absentees of their own too, with goalkeeper Robert Sanchez suspended, and Steven Alzate and Danny Welbeck - the latter of whom has a career-best five Premier League goals against Villa - out through injury. Enock Mwepu has also been ruled out, but Potter is more hopeful over the fitness of Dan Burn, while Aaron Connolly has been passed fit. Leandro Trossard will be hopeful of picking up where he left off before the international break as he bids to score in three successive Premier League games for the first time. Aston Villa possible starting lineup: Martinez; Cash, Konsa, Mings, Targett; Buendia, McGinn, Ramsey; Bailey, Ings, Watkins Brighton & Hove Albion possible starting lineup: Steele; Veltman, Dunk, Duffy, Cucurella; Bissouma, Lallana; Lamptey, Trossard, March; Maupay

We said: Aston Villa 1-1 Brighton & Hove Albion

Neither of these teams come into this match in particularly good form, although there is no doubt that Brighton have had the better season so far and, given Aston Villa's injuries, perhaps deserve to be regarded as favourites. However, the arrival of a new boss so often brings with it an immediate boost and, coupled with the international break giving Aston Villa time to shake their five consecutive defeats out of their system, we are backing Gerrard to pick up a point in his first Premier League game as a manager.
Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brighton & Hove Albion win with a probability of 39.46%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 33.86% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Brighton & Hove Albion win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.44%) and 0-2 (6.96%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 1-0 (9.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.68%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood.

Result
Aston VillaDrawBrighton & Hove Albion
33.86%26.68%39.46%
Both teams to score 51.67%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
46.71%53.29%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.15%74.84%
Aston Villa Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.24%29.76%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.17%65.82%
Brighton & Hove Albion Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.56%26.43%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.39%61.6%
Score Analysis
    Aston Villa 33.86%
    Brighton & Hove Albion 39.45%
    Draw 26.68%
Aston VillaDrawBrighton & Hove Albion
1-0 @ 9.53%
2-1 @ 7.69%
2-0 @ 5.78%
3-1 @ 3.11%
3-0 @ 2.34%
3-2 @ 2.07%
4-1 @ 0.94%
Other @ 2.41%
Total : 33.86%
1-1 @ 12.68%
0-0 @ 7.87%
2-2 @ 5.12%
3-3 @ 0.92%
Other @ 0.1%
Total : 26.68%
0-1 @ 10.46%
1-2 @ 8.44%
0-2 @ 6.96%
1-3 @ 3.74%
0-3 @ 3.09%
2-3 @ 2.27%
1-4 @ 1.25%
0-4 @ 1.03%
Other @ 2.22%
Total : 39.45%

How you voted: Aston Villa vs Brighton

Aston Villa
47.9%
Draw
26.4%
Brighton & Hove Albion
25.6%
242
Head to Head
Feb 13, 2021 8pm
Gameweek 24
Brighton
0-0
Aston Villa
Alzate (20'), Trossard (77')
Grealish (21'), Luiz (70'), Sanson (89')
Nov 21, 2020 3pm
Gameweek 9
Aston Villa
1-2
Brighton
Konsa (47')
Targett (44'), Grealish (90+1')
Welbeck (12'), March (56')
Bissouma (69'), Lamptey (88')
Lamptey (90+1')
Jan 18, 2020 3pm
Oct 19, 2019 3pm
Sep 25, 2019 7.45pm
Third Round
Brighton
1-3
Aston Villa
Roberts (61')
Richards (79'), Roberts (92')
Jota (22'), Hourihane (33'), Grealish (77')
Konsa (85')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Liverpool14112129111835
2Chelsea1594235181731
3Arsenal1585229151429
4Manchester CityMan City158342721627
5Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest157441918125
6Aston Villa157442323025
7Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton156632522324
8Bournemouth157352320324
9Brentford157263128323
10Fulham156542220223
11Tottenham HotspurSpurs1562731191220
12Newcastle UnitedNewcastle155551921-220
13Manchester UnitedMan Utd155461918119
14West Ham UnitedWest Ham155372028-818
15Everton143561421-714
16Leicester CityLeicester153572130-914
17Crystal Palace152761420-613
18Ipswich TownIpswich151681427-139
19Wolverhampton WanderersWolves1523102338-159
20Southampton1512121131-205


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