Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough Under-23s win with a probability of 41.44%. A win for Aston Villa Under-23s had a probability of 36.5% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough Under-23s win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.26%) and 3-1 (5.08%). The likeliest Aston Villa Under-23s win was 1-2 (7.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.03%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Middlesbrough Under-23s would win this match.
