Major League Soccer

Mar 9, 2025 at 12.30am UK

Yankee Stadium

NY City
2 - 1
Orlando City

Martinez (59', 59'), Wolf (71', 71')
Moralez (66'), Moralez (66'), O'Toole (77'), O'Toole (77')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Muriel (69', 69')
Angulo (60'), Angulo (60'), Atuesta (82'), Atuesta (82')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Major League Soccer clash between New York City FC and Orlando City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

New York City FC

All competitions

Major League Soccer

Last Game: Los Angeles 1-0 NY City
Sunday, March 2 at 3.30am in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

Orlando City

All competitions

Major League Soccer

Last Game: Orlando City 4-2 Toronto
Sunday, March 2 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 45.84%. A win for Orlando City had a probability of 31.38% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.84%) and 2-0 (6.19%). The likeliest Orlando City win was 1-2 (7.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.02%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-1 win for New York City FC in this match.

Result
New York City FC	Draw	Orlando City
45.84% ( 0.3)	22.78% ( -0.16)	31.38% ( -0.14)

Both teams to score 64.33% (

0.53)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

63.58% (

0.72)

36.42% (

-0.73)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

41.44% (

0.79)

58.56% (

-0.79)

New York City FC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.63% (

0.39)

16.37% (

-0.4)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

54.01% (

0.71)

45.99% (

-0.71)

Orlando City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.92% (

0.27)

23.08% (

-0.28)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.08% (

0.4)

56.91% (

-0.4)

Score Analysis

New York City FC 45.84%

Orlando City 31.38%

Draw 22.77%

New York City FC	Draw	Orlando City
2-1 @ 9.07% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 6.84% ( -0.15) 2-0 @ 6.19% ( -0.06) 3-1 @ 5.47% ( 0.07) 3-2 @ 4.01% ( 0.08) 3-0 @ 3.73% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 2.48% ( 0.06) 4-2 @ 1.82% ( 0.06) 4-0 @ 1.69% ( 0.03) Other @ 4.55% Total : 45.84%	1-1 @ 10.02% ( -0.14) 2-2 @ 6.65% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 3.78% ( -0.14) 3-3 @ 1.96% ( 0.06) Other @ 0.36% Total : 22.77%	1-2 @ 7.35% ( -0.05) 0-1 @ 5.54% ( -0.15) 0-2 @ 4.06% ( -0.08) 1-3 @ 3.59% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 3.25% ( 0.05) 0-3 @ 1.99% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 1.32% ( 0.01) 2-4 @ 1.19% ( 0.03) Other @ 3.1% Total : 31.38%