Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chicago Fire win with a probability of 50.61%. A win for New York Red Bulls had a probability of 26.41% and a draw had a probability of 22.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chicago Fire win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.84%) and 2-0 (7.54%). The likeliest New York Red Bulls win was 1-2 (6.76%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.55%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood.