Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York Red Bulls win with a probability of 48.66%. A win for Pittsburgh Riverhounds had a probability of 26.4% and a draw had a probability of 24.94%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York Red Bulls win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.6%) and 2-0 (8.09%). The likeliest Pittsburgh Riverhounds win was 0-1 (7.19%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.59%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood.