Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pittsburgh Riverhounds win with a probability of 54.24%. A draw had a probability of 26.63% and a win for Lexington had a probability of 19.14%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pittsburgh Riverhounds win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.14%) and 2-1 (9.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.19%) , while for a Lexington win it was 0-1 (7.08%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood.