Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Indy Eleven win with a probability of 35.11%. A win for Pittsburgh Riverhounds had a probability of 34.92% and a draw had a probability of 29.97%.
The most likely scoreline for a Indy Eleven win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.9%) and 2-0 (6.14%). The likeliest Pittsburgh Riverhounds win was 0-1 (10.86%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.44%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood.