Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York Red Bulls win with a probability of 50.96%. A win for New England Revolution had a probability of 25.3% and a draw had a probability of 23.73%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York Red Bulls win was 2-1 with a probability of 10.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.97%) and 2-0 (7.68%). The likeliest New England Revolution win was 1-2 (6.39%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.77%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 9% likelihood.