Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Orlando City win with a probability of 47.4%. A win for New York Red Bulls had a probability of 28% and a draw had a probability of 24.57%.
The most likely scoreline for a Orlando City win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.77%) and 2-0 (7.47%). The likeliest New York Red Bulls win was 1-2 (6.51%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.32%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood.