Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York Red Bulls win with a probability of 45.18%. A win for New York City FC had a probability of 31.12% and a draw had a probability of 23.75%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York Red Bulls win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.9%) and 2-0 (5.97%). The likeliest New York City FC win was 1-2 (7.04%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood.