Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 60.77%. A draw had a probability of 21.11% and a win for St Louis City had a probability of 18.12%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 10.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.85%) and 2-0 (9.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.62%) , while for a St Louis City win it was 1-2 (4.85%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood.