Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Louis City win with a probability of 38.1%. A win for DC United had a probability of 35.64% and a draw had a probability of 26.32%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Louis City win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.64%) and 0-2 (5.6%). The likeliest DC United win was 1-0 (8.27%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.69%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood.