Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Louis City win with a probability of 48.22%. A win for Tampa Bay Rowdies had a probability of 27.85% and a draw had a probability of 23.94%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Louis City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.17%) and 2-0 (7.02%). The likeliest Tampa Bay Rowdies win was 1-2 (6.93%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.67%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood.