Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 57.93%. A draw had a probability of 23.16% and a win for Tampa Bay Rowdies had a probability of 18.91%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 10.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.34%) and 2-0 (8.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.48%) , while for a Tampa Bay Rowdies win it was 1-2 (5.54%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood.