Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Louis City win with a probability of 49.7%. A win for Austin FC had a probability of 25.68% and a draw had a probability of 24.63%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Louis City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.28%) and 2-0 (7.26%). The likeliest Austin FC win was 1-2 (6.55%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.69%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood.