Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Louisville City win with a probability of 37.93%. A win for Austin FC had a probability of 36.25% and a draw had a probability of 25.88%.
The most likely scoreline for a Louisville City win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.21%) and 0-2 (5.83%). The likeliest Austin FC win was 1-0 (8.49%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.66%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood.