Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 55.71%. A draw had a probability of 23.61% and a win for Austin FC had a probability of 20.63%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 10.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.95%) and 2-0 (8.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.44%) , while for a Austin FC win it was 1-2 (5.82%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood.