Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Philadelphia Union win with a probability of 54.35%. A win for New York City FC had a probability of 23.74% and a draw had a probability of 21.91%.
The most likely scoreline for a Philadelphia Union win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.42%) and 2-0 (8.45%). The likeliest New York City FC win was 1-2 (5.87%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood.